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Increasing worries are present regarding the possibility of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational language has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has triggered a heated rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have often been tense. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to capture it through military means.

Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Claims

Despite persistent threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to short statements on X from Communications Head the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a approach of reclaiming former lands.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the neighboring states.

However, in the country, national TV has shown graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the defense force, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Past Origins of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then controlled by the British administration before turning into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long internal conflict occurred, ending with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then approved by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Even though this ended in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries continued at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a announcement that the conflict was concluded – a move that won Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

However ties have later worsened anew.