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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still